The Market's Lying to You | What the Fed, Jobs & Rates Aren’t Telling You
There’s a moment in every storm where everything goes quiet. No thunder, no lightning—just still air. And if you’re not paying attention, you might think it’s over.
That’s the housing and job market right now.
Rates haven’t moved much. The job market still looks “okay” on paper. Headlines? Surprisingly calm. But if you’ve been watching closely, you know this is just the setup before something shifts.
Let’s break down what really happened in April—beyond the headlines—and why it matters whether you’re buying, selling, investing, or just trying to make a smart move before the music changes tempo.
Why the Jobs Report Isn’t What It Seems
At first glance, April’s jobs report looked solid. The U.S. added 177,000 jobs last month, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
But here’s what the headlines didn’t say: January, February, and March were quietly revised down by a total of 124,000 jobs. No fanfare. Just buried in the footnotes.
And the people who are unemployed? They’re staying out longer—23.2 weeks on average, the highest it’s been in nearly a year (BLS).
Here’s another twist: While government data says small businesses added nearly 400,000 jobs in April, ADP—the payroll giant—reported just 11,000 in small business job growth (ADP Report). That’s not a rounding error. That’s a major disconnect.
And when job data doesn’t align, the market hesitates.
Home Prices Refuse to Blink
While everyone was watching jobs and inflation, home prices quietly climbed—again.
The Case-Shiller Index showed a 3.9% year-over-year increase (S&P CoreLogic)
The FHFA reported a 3.99% increase (FHFA HPI)
In some metro areas, prices are up 4.5% to 6%—especially in high-demand cities like San Francisco.
So, despite high mortgage rates and affordability concerns, prices didn’t drop. Why? Because demand didn’t disappear—it just paused. And now, as buyers believe rate cuts could come later this year, that delayed demand is waking up.
Even if you’re not buying yet, this matters. Because if prices are this resilient in a high-rate market, imagine what happens when rates fall.
Mortgage Bonds Are Slipping—Here’s Why It Matters
Here’s a simple truth: Mortgage rates don’t move because the Fed hikes or cuts directly. They move based on what bond markets expect the Fed will do.
And right now, mortgage-backed securities (MBS)—the bonds behind your 30-year fixed mortgage—are dropping below key support levels.
Think of it like climbing stairs. If the stair under you breaks, you fall to the next one. That’s happening now with MBS. It doesn’t mean rates spike tomorrow—but it does mean the current rate environment is fragile and primed for change.
Inflation is Cooling… But Shelter Costs Are Sticky
Here’s the good news: The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, Core PCE, came in at 2.6%, with the headline number at 2.3% (BEA Report).
That’s progress.
But shelter—mostly rent—is still a drag. Shelter makes up about 18% of Core PCE, and while real-time data from sites like Apartment List shows rent growth has slowed dramatically, the Fed’s models lag by several months.
When that lag catches up and shelter costs reflect real-world conditions, we could see true rate relief—not because the Fed says so, but because the markets will lead.
What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors
April wasn’t a month of dramatic moves—it was a month of setup.
Home prices showed strength
Rates showed stress
The job market showed cracks—despite the smiles
If you’re not planning to buy right now, this is still the time to get your strategy ready. Prep your documents. Know your options. Talk to your lender. When rates drop—and they likely will—you’ll be ahead of the curve.
And if they don’t? You’re still better prepared than the people scrambling to catch up.
Final Thoughts: Timing Beats Headlines
Life is strange before the rates break.
Everything looks fine… until it’s not. But if you’re paying attention to the tempo, not just the tune, you’ll spot the shift early.
Those who wait for the storm to hit are always the last to move. But those who feel the wind change? They win.
So prep, plan, and position yourself.
Oh, and if the world gets too noisy—remember: muffins help.
