Everyone Froze in March. Smart Buyers Moved
Existing Home Sales: A Pause, Not a Panic
March existing home sales fell 5.9%, surprising many economists. But it’s not demand that’s the problem — it’s still about inventory.
Buyers are active, but listings remain low. Inventory rose to 1.3 million homes, but that’s still 3 million fewer than pre-pandemic levels.
Source: National Association of Realtors - https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-retreated-5-9-in-march
This isn’t a market collapse — it’s a supply issue. Imagine a packed dance floor that suddenly shrinks. The music is still playing, but there’s less room to move.
New Construction: A Bright Spot with a Catch
New home sales jumped 7.4% in March, showing promise — but there’s a catch. Of the 503,000 new homes available, only 119,000 are move-in ready. The rest are still under construction.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau - https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
That means many buyers are purchasing homes they can’t move into yet — it’s like buying tickets to a concert months in advance. The good news? Builders are offering incentives: rate buy-downs, closing cost assistance, and upgrades.
The Fed’s Beige Book Sends a Signal
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book paints a different economic picture. Hiring is slowing, consumer spending is flickering, and tariffs were mentioned 107 times — more than double from the previous quarter.
Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202404.htm
That kind of caution from the Fed often signals a pause in rate hikes — and sometimes even cuts. This is a key moment for strategic buyers and investors to position themselves.
Jobs: Strong Surface, Slower Momentum
Initial unemployment claims remain low, but continuing claims — people staying unemployed longer — are above 1.8 million.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor - https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
This indicates companies aren’t panicking, but they are tapping the brakes on hiring and spending. That shift creates tighter competition — and opportunity for those who are prepared, not panicked.
Mortgage Bonds: Quietly Breaking Out
Mortgage bonds — the engine behind mortgage rates — broke through the 25-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages in April. That’s a big technical shift.
If economic data keeps cooling, rates could drift lower without fanfare — no flashy headlines, just quiet momentum.
Source: Mortgage News Daily - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
The Buyer’s Waltz: What Smart Buyers Are Doing Now
Markets shift. Rates bounce. Inventory rises and falls. But winners don’t try to guess the song — they move with the rhythm.
Right now, that means:
Structuring lower starting payments with temporary buydowns
Using builder incentives before they disappear
Locking early with refinance flexibility
Keeping liquidity for opportunity
Like in La La Land, the dream doesn’t fade when the song changes — it fades when you stop dancing.
